Automated Detection of Orbital Perturbations via Residual Tracking
TESS Candidate → RV Confirmation → Perturbation Analysis
TESS Observations: 127 transits
RV Measurements: 45 epochs
Current RMS Residual: 4.8 m/s
Expected Photon Noise: 2.1 m/s
Curiosity Threshold (RMS): 2.0 m/s
Consensus Threshold (Z): 0.85
Science Question: TESS detected a single transiting planet (P=8.4d, R=2.1 R⊕). Initial RV follow-up confirms the signal, but residuals remain high (4.8 m/s) despite good Keplerian fit convergence. Is there an outer companion inducing perturbations?
Excess RMS (above photon noise):
RMS decreases as Keplerian fit improves, but plateaus due to unmodeled companion.
Query: "Single-planet Keplerian model converged (Z=0.87) with stable orbital parameters (P=8.4d, K=12.3 m/s, e=0.14), but RMS residual remains 4.8 m/s (expected photon noise: 2.1 m/s). Excess RMS = 2.7 m/s. Search literature for: TTVs, outer companions, Rømer delays, stellar activity cycles. What is the most plausible explanation?"
... Awaiting Perturbation Signal ...
Relevant Literature Found:
| Epoch | Avg Z | RMS (m/s) | Excess RMS | Status |
|---|